• 62% of used dealers say at least one existing major European car maker will be driven out of business in the next 10 years
• Likely causes include the high cost of electrification (40%) and inability to compete with low-cost cars from China (32%)
• However, 21% believe European manufacturers will survive through mergers and acquisitions, shows April’s Startline Used Car Tracker

Likely causes reported in April’s Startline Used Car Tracker include the cost of investing in electrification (mentioned by 40% of dealers) and their inability to compete with low-cost vehicles from Chinese new entrants (32%).

Also, 26% think they won’t be able to keep up with important new technologies such as self-driving cars, while 10% say established manufacturers will be harmed by buyers becoming less brand conscious.

However, other dealers who took part in the survey are more optimistic – 21% believe European car makers will survive through mergers or acquisitions, 18% that they are already becoming more competitive with Chinese companies, 18% that brand and design strength will save them and that 8% that tariffs and other protections will prove effective.

Paul Burgess, CEO at Startline Motor Finance, said: “The level of competition in the new car market prompted by new entrants alongside the very high degree of investment required to electrify means this might be the toughest moment many long-established and storied European car makers have faced in living memory. They are under huge pressure.

“Our research shows a majority of dealers don’t believe all these companies will survive into the mid-2030s as a result. However, others think mergers and acquisitions, market protections and sheer brand strength will play a part in their preservation.

“It’s also interesting that almost one in five believe European car makers are already becoming more competitive with their Chinese counterparts and certainly some, such as Renault and BMW, appear to be successfully embracing electrification as an opportunity.”

The Tracker research also asked whether Japanese and Korean car makers were as much under threat as European ones – with 49% of used car dealers agreeing.                                         

Paul said: “The disruption we are seeing affects all established manufacturers and it is not just European businesses that are facing an existential crisis.”

The Startline Used Car Tracker is compiled monthly for Startline Motor Finance by APD Global Research, well-known in the motor industry for their business intelligence reporting and customer experience programs. This time, 300 consumers and 61 dealers were questioned.